Wednesday, September 2, 2015

The economy has not been standardized

The economy has not been standardized
We will have to wait for the two most important central bankers of the world give their version of what happened the last two weeks in the financial markets and, what is more important, we can infer what the reaction of monetary policy. Neither Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi have come to the banking conclave that takes place every year in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. That meeting usually derived keys in the behavior of those institutions in which it is hoped to tame the episodes of financial instability, intrinsic to the economic system. Recall that in last year's meeting the president of the ECB announced its readiness to actively intervene in order to halt the deflationary threat and reverse the damaging effects of extreme austerity policies that had been practicing in the eurozone since 2010 .

Competitiveness well understood
It is assumed that central banks have no direct its monetary policy decisions in response to the behavior of financial markets, to a lesser extent that of the equity markets jerky. But what happened from August 11 can mean more than a market correction to use. The epicenter of this convulsion has been located in the Chinese economy, the world's largest and most difficult to scrutinize second justifies that expectation.

Devaluations in the exchange rate of the yuan stressed the concern about the ability of the Chinese authorities to prevent a decline in growth below the current, historically low, less than 7%. Recall that China has grown for more than two decades at rates of 10% and still last year almost half of global economic growth was caused by that economy. Chinese expansion depend not only on those emerging economies exporting commodities, which account for the recent declines in international trade, but also other advanced, such as Germany, which are among its main customers. Or as the US, which has long benefits of the Chinese excess savings to finance their deficits. If China allocated to other investors purposes its large international reserves in dollars and Americans stop buying government bonds, interest rates in the US would rise significantly, resulting contractionary effect on the economy.

It's times like these when confidence in the quality of the information comes into its own
The policy responses so far have given the Chinese authorities are not entirely reassuring. It's times like these when confidence in the quality of the information comes into its own. After all that's what the financial markets processed, but not always efficiently. And that information is not complete, as it is no presumption of the ability of these authorities to control the situation created. Decisions confusing, if not contradictory, such as measures to influence their equity markets, accentuate distrust in a financial system whose quality is improper size of its economy.

If the Chinese slowdown is sharper than the records will have reflected reasons for the Fed away any temptation of immediate tightening of monetary policy. For now, the statements of the vice president of the Federal Reserve, Stanley Fisher, have not been very reassuring, confirming that elevated rates scheduled for next September 17 still on the table. His counterpart at the ECB, fortunately, has confirmed the continuation of the present policy until at least the autumn of next year.

The world economy has not returned to normal. In none of the advanced economies, including the US, they are perceived inflationary threats. And prices of raw materials or wage developments are generating concern precisely. If before the August events were reasonable doubts about the strength of the recovery in global growth, they are now much more. Enough, anyway, that central banks should not rush into adopting decisions hardening, and limit the growth and hinder the rise of the inflation rate, would generate additional financial spasms, not necessarily as reversible as the recent weeks.