Thursday, October 8, 2015

The pretext for Russia, World will be better if Assad die

The pretext for Russia, World will be better if Assad die
The world will be better if Assad collapse and let the syirian choose their new leader. Putin has decided to give a new twist to the pulse that keeps with the West. Aerial attacks by its air force against the Syrian territory are not intended, as announced, to combat the Islamic State (IS), but to preserve its strategic interests in the Middle East. At the head of them the naval base at Tartus is the only one we have Russia in the Mediterranean, but also gas deposits discovered on the coast, whose holdings have secured several Russian companies over the next 25 years. Obviously, this intervention also has a symbolic component related to the will of Putin to reclaim the Russian leadership on the international stage. The political survival of Bashar al-Assad is vital to ensure those interests.

Cold War in the Middle East - Descent into hell in Syria
Actually this stubborn defense of the Syrian regime should not surprise anyone, since from the beginning of the antiauthoritarian revolt, which soon led to a military confrontation on a large scale, Russia has provided a decisive support to Bashar al-Assad to prevent your regime to crumble like a house of cards. A military and economic aid joined the diplomatic support, as Russia used its veto to prevent the imposition of sanctions by the Security Council. When the possibility of imposing no-fly zones to the Syrian aviation was raised, Putin cut off debate root to prevent a similar resolution that allowed the NATO intervention in Libya was approved. Nothing new under the sun, but the truth is that it seems that Putin has decided to raise the bar on its commitment to Assad immobility of the West.

Many wonder why now and not before. The answer is simple. Today, the Syrian regime retains only 25% of the territory. The consolidation of the Islamic State in the basin of the Euphrates and advance Victory Front (coalition between the Salafist Ahrar Al-Sham and the jihadist Al-Nusra Front) to Latakia, the stronghold of Assad, they have lit all alarms about a possible collapse of the regime. Russian intervention could indicate that the situation is more delicate than hitherto thought.

At the same time Putin proves once again its ability to monetize the contradictions of Western countries, unable to adopt a coherent strategy to defuse the Syrian Civil War. Improvisation has chaired the answer to the refugee crisis in Europe saved not a few parallels with indecision when EI fight that has interrupted his meteoric progress but has strengthened its position in the areas under their control. It is increasingly clear that much of the western countries consider this court jihadist training as the main threat to their interests and therefore are willing to sell their soul to the devil-read coalesce with Bashar himself with the Asad- As long defeat. This shortsighted reading seems to have imposed in many European chancelleries is what has led Putin to make a move and stand as a shield of defense against jihadist barbarism.

The consolidation of the Islamic State in the basin of the Euphrates and the advancement of other jihadi forces reveal a possible collapse of the regime

Therefore, the priority is to bolster Putin Assad and not hit the IS, whose existence is still useful because it allows the regime to continue waving the scarecrow of jihadism and try to get the international community to recognize him as a lesser evil. Assad is fully aware that the defeat of IS significantly reduce their expectations of survival, hence its interest in preserving to shield power. In reality, the Russian bombings are meant to curb the various rebel factions have become strong in Idlib and advancing as a grip on the Alawite stronghold of Latakia. The purpose of the risky Russian operation would not be so narrow defeat as red lines to prevent their advance endanger the bastions of the regime. Syria's Mediterranean coast, and the Damascus-Homs-Hama shaft should be kept at all costs, because in that small portion of territory vital interests of Russia are concentrated: both the naval base of Tartus as gasísticos sites in the Mediterranean. The rest of the territory is just as important as guarantees and strategic depth of this mini-Syria under Russian protection.


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